The Kickwise AI record

Only the AI’s last call before kickoff counts. It is graded on the result after 90 minutes plus extra time, so a penalty shootout counts as a draw. The headline figure covers its confident calls, where its pick had 65% or more.

The AI’s call is its last win probability recorded before kickoff. A number logged after kickoff, or one the model did not produce (the statistical starting estimate), never counts.

For the matches the site follows, once both confirmed starting lineups are out before kickoff, the AI makes its call again with them, and that call replaces the earlier one on the record, with the one exception explained below. The CSV marks these calls in the lineups column.

Two baselines sit beside the AI: always picking the home team, and a forecast that gives every match the same chances (the sample’s own home win, draw and away win rates). The Brier score measures the probabilities themselves: 0 is perfect, lower is better.

Since October 20, 2026 the site asks for the AI’s call on every upcoming match in the main competitions itself, so the record no longer depends on someone opening a match page. The CSV says who asked for each call: a visitor’s page or the site (source).

Since 10 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC, the newest call made before kickoff is the one on the record. A call made while part of the usual match data was missing counts that way only when it was made with the confirmed lineups and a market price for the match; otherwise, like every such call before that date, it counts only when the AI made no call with the full data for that match.

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